The transition from an authoritarian regime to democratic system is a demanding task. I believe that the transition away from an authoritarian regime does not always end to a democratic system. Huntington explains there are many variables to consider when discussing why a country transitions from one regime to another. All of these variables push and pull each other to explain the democratization in a country.
It’s impossible to peg one reason for the change. When looking at transitions, Huntington pointed out several patterns, one called “the second-try pattern”. This pattern goes through steps. First an authoritarian system shifts to a democratic system. Next, Huntington explains, “the democratic system fails because the country lacks the social bases for democracy, or the leaders of the new democratic system pursue extremist polices that produce a drastic reaction”(42). After the failure of the democratic system, there is a return to an authoritarian government, for period of time. Over time however, with a second effort to change into democracy they find more success, learning from their previous mistakes.
I couldn’t help but think that this is a similar pattern that Egypt is facing today. Consequently I looked at a New York Times article in dated November of 2014 called Rubber-Stamp Assembly Expected From Egypt Vote, anticipating the parliamentary elections. Egypt was under authoritarian rule of Hosni Mubarak, who resigned due to a lack of support from the military, amounts other various reasons. After Mubarak’s resignation, the Egyptians then held an election where they elected Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. After a single year of presidency Morsi was ousted by Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, who is currently the president of Egypt. Thus the possibly first failed attempt to transition democracy seen with the second-try pattern discussed by Huntington.
However, Egypt’s transition is still developing, but at this point a second try at democracy, to follow this pattern discussed by Huntington, seems far fetched. We are at a point where Egypt has tried and failed once, but a second-try at democracy seems far off. Perhaps, with the case of Egypt they have tried and failed, and now returned to an authoritarian regime with no thought transitioning back to democracy.